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雷达扫描报告·2026-10-21 03:00 CST

Roblox 新游雷达 - 2026-10-21 03:00 CST Tick Report

本 tick = US 2026-10-20 15:00 EDT (周二下午, school/work 时段, 非 peak) | 距上 tick (21:00 CST) 真 6h 空窗, 无缺口

🎯 Tick Summary

NEW burst: 0 A + 0 B + 4 C + 4 D + 4 E 真新 — 164 候选 → API 验证 157 → ≤90d 通过 40 → CCU≥30 存活 20 → 评分入榜 12

Drop: >90d 老服 117 个 | CCU<30 20 个 | API 无数据 7 个

Saturated-4+ 7 | Saturated-6 1

核心判断: 本 tick 无 A/B 级。最高分 = Steal An Egg Brainrot 74/100 (C 级上沿), CCU 最高的 DONT SPLASH (5,416) 反而只有 36/100 — 3 天新游靠恐怖题材蹭 UAC 流量, 机制与社交双空, 属典型 CCU 虚高 / 机制单薄, 不立项。

🥉 C 级 (4 个)

1. [WORLD2🎃] Steal An Egg Brainrot (id=122426256818221) — 74/100 [C]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/122426256818221
  • CCU: 689 | Visits: 2,272,418 | Favorites: 94,929 (4.177%) | maxPlayers: 7
  • Created: 2026-08-23 (57 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-19 (1 天前)
  • Channels: kw:steal_brainrot
  • 基因: Gameplay 6.5/10 (潜入-偷蛋-奔跑-孵化 完整 tycoon 循环, World2 已扩 22 biome) · Motivation 8.0/10 (170+ brainrot 图鉴+2 世界+新 biome, fav/vis 4.177% 高) · Viral 8.0/10 (brainrot IP 词本身即病毒传播, 偷蛋逃跑具喜剧切片) · Social 6.0/10 (steal from other players = PvP 博弈核心) · Expansion 8.0/10 (World2 已证可扩(6 新 biome), 继续加 biome 成本低) · TrendFit 7.5/10 (brainrot = 2026 最强搜索词族, codes/tier/best-pet 需求成熟)
  • 加权: 7.35 × 10 = 74/100 [C]

2. [2 Player] Guess The Anime Character (id=130266166599892) — 70/100 [C]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/130266166599892
  • CCU: 1,754 | Visits: 800,883 | Favorites: 11,740 (1.466%) | maxPlayers: 20
  • Created: 2026-09-24 (25 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-20 (-1 天前)
  • Channels: chart:up-and-coming
  • 基因: Gameplay 7.0/10 (1v1 问答+翻牌排除, 循环清晰有博弈深度, 每周上新 anime) · Motivation 6.0/10 (crowns+thrones 段位驱动, codes 存在, fav/vis 1.466% 中上) · Viral 7.5/10 (双人对战天然有切片, 猜错瞬间情绪爆点强) · Social 8.0/10 (1v1 好友/玩家/bot 三档, maxPlayers=20, 社交为唯一核心) · Expansion 6.0/10 (每周新增 anime = 内容可续, 但模式单一) · TrendFit 7.5/10 (anime 猜谜 = 2026 强搜索意图词, codes+tier 需求明确)
  • 加权: 6.95 × 10 = 70/100 [C]

3. Old T Tower Defense [💥EP 65] (id=89126177943852) — 69/100 [C]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/89126177943852
  • CCU: 236 | Visits: 569,959 | Favorites: 14,828 (2.602%) | maxPlayers: 50
  • Created: 2026-08-02 (79 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-20 (0 天前)
  • Channels: kw:tower_defense
  • 基因: Gameplay 6.5/10 (塔防+真人出镜梗(Oldest T/cameraman), 每周五更新 EP65) · Motivation 7.5/10 (EP 集数式更新=强回访, fav/vis 2.602% 高) · Viral 7.0/10 (真人 cameraman 梗 = 天然 YouTube 切片素材) · Social 6.0/10 (好友 coin boost + 50 人服务器, PvP 对抗塔防) · Expansion 7.5/10 (每周 episode = 内容管线已跑通 65 期) · TrendFit 6.5/10 (tower defense 成熟品类, IP 梗玩法有差异化)
  • 加权: 6.88 × 10 = 69/100 [C]

4. Steal Brainrot Eggs (id=104469958681645) — 66/100 [C]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/104469958681645
  • CCU: 375 | Visits: 6,727,276 | Favorites: 17,895 (0.266%) | maxPlayers: 5
  • Created: 2026-09-04 (45 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-18 (2 天前)
  • Channels: kw:steal_brainrot
  • 基因: Gameplay 5.5/10 (偷蛋-孵化-升级基地-训练速度, 完整 collect/tycoon 循环) · Motivation 7.0/10 (稀有宠物+基地升级+训练, fav/vis 0.266% 低) · Viral 7.0/10 (brainrot 词族传播力强) · Social 6.5/10 (steal eggs from other players = PvP, maxPlayers=5) · Expansion 7.0/10 (基地/宠物/训练三条扩展线) · TrendFit 7.0/10 (steal brainrot = 2026 强词, 但同质化严重)
  • 加权: 6.62 × 10 = 66/100 [C]

❌ D 级 (4 个)

1. [🎃HALLOWEEN] Egg Tower Defense (id=79517569623619) — 64/100 [D]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/79517569623619
  • CCU: 226 | Visits: 523,548 | Favorites: 10,201 (1.948%) | maxPlayers: 20
  • Created: 2026-09-26 (24 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-19 (0 天前)
  • Channels: kw:tower_defense
  • 基因: Gameplay 6.0/10 (蛋塔防: worm 打僵尸→boss 掉蛋→孵化 troops→升级农场) · Motivation 7.0/10 (农场升级+troop 装备+仓库, 循环完整, fav/vis 1.948%) · Viral 6.5/10 (动物 troops 对战有轻松传播性) · Social 5.5/10 (20 人 + 好友加成, 中等社交) · Expansion 7.0/10 (3 难度模式+8 动物+3 蛋已证可扩) · TrendFit 6.5/10 (egg tower defense = collect+defense 融合, 稳定需求)
  • 加权: 6.43 × 10 = 64/100 [D]

2. Fight Animals for Eggs! (id=80155477652624) — 59/100 [D]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/80155477652624
  • CCU: 704 | Visits: 891,774 | Favorites: 2,242 (0.251%) | maxPlayers: 4
  • Created: 2026-09-30 (20 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-20 (0 天前)
  • Channels: kw:fight_club
  • 基因: Gameplay 5.5/10 (训练+投掷动物产蛋+宠物离线收益, idle/collect 循环自洽) · Motivation 7.0/10 (离线收益+宠物+每周六更新, fav/vis 0.251% 低说明留存弱) · Viral 6.5/10 (cute/pets 标签, 动物互扔有搞笑切片) · Social 3.0/10 (maxPlayers=4, 无 trade/pvp, 弱社交) · Expansion 6.5/10 (宠物/蛋/被动收益天然可加内容) · TrendFit 6.5/10 (pets+collect 命中 B DNA, 2026 稳定需求)
  • 加权: 5.88 × 10 = 59/100 [D]

3. +1 Scary Per Step (id=132804961312393) — 55/100 [D]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/132804961312393
  • CCU: 224 | Visits: 677,692 | Favorites: 4,705 (0.694%) | maxPlayers: 20
  • Created: 2026-09-24 (25 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-18 (1 天前)
  • Channels: kw:scary_school
  • 基因: Gameplay 4.5/10 (+1 clicker 骨架(每步得 Scary)+ rebirth, 本质是增量点击器) · Motivation 6.5/10 (rebirth 双倍+离线收益+蛋/宠物, 增量标准钩子) · Viral 7.0/10 (怪物化跑步有视觉传播性) · Social 2.5/10 (maxPlayers=20 但无 trade/pvp, 纯挂机) · Expansion 6.0/10 (增量类天然可加 prestige 层) · TrendFit 6.0/10 (+1 词为 2026 常青但同质化极端, 撞词风险高)
  • 加权: 5.47 × 10 = 55/100 [D]

4. ⚔️1.8 PVP Club (id=102518817130593) — 51/100 [D]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/102518817130593
  • CCU: 529 | Visits: 4,741,980 | Favorites: 10,568 (0.223%) | maxPlayers: 20
  • Created: 2026-09-02 (47 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-14 (5 天前)
  • Channels: kw:fight_club
  • 基因: Gameplay 5.0/10 (Minecraft 1.8 FFA PvP, 换皮明显但 PvP 核心真实) · Motivation 5.5/10 (level 解锁+全球 leaderboard, fav/vis 0.223% 极低) · Viral 5.0/10 (PvP 击杀有切片但 Minecraft 词已过气) · Social 5.5/10 (20 人 FFA 对战 = 社交密度高) · Expansion 5.0/10 (PvP 换皮扩展空间有限) · TrendFit 4.5/10 (Minecraft 词非 2026 上升, 且有 IP 合规风险)
  • 加权: 5.12 × 10 = 51/100 [D]

❌❌ E 级 (4 个)

1. 🎁Lucky blocks but you steal it (id=104665774109230) — 47/100 [E]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/104665774109230
  • CCU: 719 | Visits: 3,624,474 | Favorites: 350,371 (9.667%) | maxPlayers: 8
  • Created: 2026-08-30 (50 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-09-16 (33 天前)
  • Channels: kw:steal_brainrot
  • 基因: Gameplay 3.0/10 (描述仅 'a', 完全空白 = 无机制信息, 无法判定循环) · Motivation 6.0/10 (fav/vis 9.667% 全榜最高 = 收藏驱动极强, 350K favs) · Viral 6.0/10 (steal 机制有传播性但描述空白无法确认) · Social 4.0/10 (maxPlayers=8 低, steal 暗示 PvP 抢夺) · Expansion 4.0/10 (描述空白, 无法判定) · TrendFit 5.0/10 (lucky block+steal = brainrot 融合词, 2026 契合)
  • 加权: 4.70 × 10 = 47/100 [E]

2. Cozy study cafe (id=96438513269603) — 44/100 [E]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/96438513269603
  • CCU: 237 | Visits: 195,392 | Favorites: 3,381 (1.73%) | maxPlayers: 50
  • Created: 2026-09-12 (38 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-20 (0 天前)
  • Channels: kw:cafe_manager
  • 基因: Gameplay 5.0/10 (emotional study cafe 选座+focus timer, 情绪陪伴型无闯关) · Motivation 4.0/10 (fav/vis 1.73%, 学习陪伴无强成长钩子) · Viral 3.5/10 (无传播点, 安静型) · Social 3.0/10 (maxPlayers=50 是本 tick 最高, 但互动弱) · Expansion 5.0/10 (座位/空间可扩, 世界 DNA 天然扩展) · TrendFit 6.5/10 (cafe/cozy = E DNA 命中, 契合 2026 cozy 趋势)
  • 加权: 4.35 × 10 = 44/100 [E]

3. [HALLOWEEN 🎃] DONT SPLASH (id=119958473240233) — 36/100 [E]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/119958473240233
  • CCU: 5,416 | Visits: 1,069,657 | Favorites: 4,059 (0.379%) | maxPlayers: 10
  • Created: 2026-10-17 (3 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-20 (0 天前)
  • Channels: chart:up-and-coming
  • 基因: Gameplay 4.0/10 (poolrooms-inspired horror ambience, 10p servers, V2 但核心是躲闪生存，机制浅) · Motivation 2.0/10 (fav/vis 0.379% 极低, 3 天新游无沉淀收集系统) · Viral 6.5/10 (追逐躲闪有切片性, 但无夸张物理/搞笑点) · Social 1.0/10 (maxPlayers=10 但描述无任何 trade/pvp/co-op, 纯躲猫猫) · Expansion 3.0/10 (V2 已发布说明内容耗竭, 无关卡/系统扩展位) · TrendFit 5.5/10 (World DNA 命中(hall/poolrooms), 但 horror niche 非 2026 主升)
  • 加权: 3.65 × 10 = 36/100 [E]

4. 💤 3 AM (id=137068663939717) — 36/100 [E]

  • URL: https://www.roblox.com/games/137068663939717
  • CCU: 1,001 | Visits: 9,364,381 | Favorites: 316,918 (3.384%) | maxPlayers: 12
  • Created: 2026-07-21 (90 天前 ✅ ≤90d) | Updated: 2026-10-12 (8 天前)
  • Channels: kw:work_night
  • 基因: Gameplay 2.5/10 (3 AM 恐怖跑酷, 描述仅宣传语无机制说明, 极薄) · Motivation 3.5/10 (fav/vis 3.384% 高但 90 天老, 316K favs 是存量非新增钩子) · Viral 6.0/10 (潜行 horror 有切片性但无记忆点) · Social 2.0/10 (maxPlayers=12, 无社交机制描述) · Expansion 2.5/10 (90d 已到上限, 内容驱动弱) · TrendFit 5.5/10 (night horror 命中 E DNA 但已是成熟饱和品类)
  • 加权: 3.62 × 10 = 36/100 [E]

🚫 Drop 过滤明细

  • 老游戏 (>90d): 117 个 — 关键词通道富集老服, 典型 Squabble City / Right 2 Fight (Inactive) 等 8-10 位 placeId 老游
  • 低 CCU (<30): 20 个 — ≤90d 但无流量, 无 SEO 价值
  • API 无数据: 7 个 — 已写入 pending_unreleased.json 供维度 4 追踪

📡 元数据

  • 8 渠道覆盖: 维度 1 5/5 ✅ (上 tick 21:00 为 0/5 本 tick 已恢复) | 维度 3 12/12 ✅ (omni-search 结构性空 → 浏览器 discover 兜底)
  • 🧬 Gene Hunt 命中: gene_hits.json 100 个 Alpha (A=2 B=14 C=50, 12 combos, matrix 6600/180) — 本 tick 由 Gene Hunt 独立评分, 不重复计分
  • 90d 过滤统计: 164 候选 → 157 API 验证 → 40 pass (≤90d) → 20 CCU≥30 → 12 评分入榜 → 117 drop(>90d) + 20 drop(CCU) + 7 drop(no-api)
  • API 调用成功率: 两阶段 157/164 = 95.7% (placeId→universeId 转换 157/164)
  • A/B/C/D/E: A=0, B=0, C=4, D=4, E=4
  • 基线: 4059 → 4223 keys (+164, never shrink ✅)
  • 🏭 Studio 候选: dim4_new_candidates.json 0 个 (本 tick 无新增, 扫描群组均为 [DEV] Drive It! 测试场)
  • 🟢 未上线候选: pending_unreleased.json 349 个 (+7 本 tick)
  • Pitfalls applied: #6.287c(sessionId+rootPlaceId 免转换) · #6.577b(omni-search 结构性空→浏览器 discover) · #6.288/#6.293(老游 placeId 过滤) · #6.572(Z-form 日期) · #6.516(小数位补齐) · #6.270/#6.295(baseline∪current 不缩小) · #6.296(block_type smoke test) · #6.302(batch≤50) · #6.294(无嵌套 f-string)

🧬 本 tick 基因命中 (维度 3, 12 combos 轮换)

  • fight_club: 39 个 (raw_links 41)
  • scary_school: 40 个 (raw_links 40)
  • escape_asylum: 40 个 (raw_links 41)
  • steal_brainrot: 39 个 (raw_links 41)
  • build_monster: 40 个 (raw_links 40)
  • cook_restaurant: 39 个 (raw_links 40)
  • work_night: 40 个 (raw_links 40)
  • tower_defense: 39 个 (raw_links 40)
  • pet_simulator: 38 个 (raw_links 41)
  • obby_horror: 40 个 (raw_links 40)
  • cafe_manager: 39 个 (raw_links 40)
  • inventory_simulator: 39 个 (raw_links 40)

📦 归档推送状态

  • 见消息框最终状态 (PUSHED / NO_CHANGES / FAILED)
  • 仓库: https://github.com/kennyzir-labs/roblox_search_new_v1

🔧 Pitfall 新增

#149 候选 — 上 tick (21:00 CST) 维度 1 五榜全 0 的成因判定: 本 tick 同 URL + 同脚本 + 同代理 5/5 全部成功 (359 unique ids), 证明 21:00 的 0/5 是 explore-api 瞬时失败 而非 sessionId/参数变更 (排除 #6.287c 回归)。处置: 维度 1 单 tick 全 0 时不得直接判 SCAN FAILED, 必须下一 tick 复探确认; 若连续 2 tick 全 0 才升级为 API 契约变更告警。

下 tick 关注: ① 维度 1 是否连续成功 (验证 #149 判定) ② Steal An Egg Brainrot / Guess The Anime Character 能否突破 75 进入 B ③ dim4 群组扫描连续返回 [DEV] Drive It! 测试场 = 维度 4 需修正群组名单

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